September 03, 2024
AI’s impact on elections is being overblown
This year, close to half the world’s population has the opportunity to participate in an election. And according to a steady stream of pundits, institutions, academics, and news organizations, there’s a major new threat to the integrity of those elections: artificial intelligence.
The earliest predictions warned that a new AI-powered world was, apparently, propelling us toward a “tech-enabled Armageddon” where “elections get screwed up”, and that “anybody who’s not worried [was] not paying attention.” The internet is full of doom-laden stories proclaiming that AI-generated deepfakes will mislead and influence voters, as well as enabling new forms of personalized and targeted political advertising. Though such claims are concerning, it is critical to look at the evidence. With a substantial number of this year’s elections concluded, it is a good time to ask how accurate these assessments have been so far. The preliminary answer seems to be not very; early alarmist claims about AI and elections appear to have been blown out of proportion.
Far from being dominated by AI-enabled catastrophes, this election “super year” at that point was pretty much like every other election year.
While there will be more elections this year where AI could have an effect, the United States being one likely to attract particular attention, the trend observed thus far is unlikely to change. AI is being used to try to influence electoral processes, but these efforts have not been fruitful. Commenting on the upcoming US election, Meta’s latest Adversarial Threat Report acknowledged that AI was being used to meddle—for example, by Russia-based operations—but that “GenAI-powered tactics provide only incremental productivity and content-generation gains” to such “threat actors.” This echoes comments from the company’s president of global affairs, Nick Clegg, who earlier this year stated that “it is striking how little these tools have been used on a systematic basis to really try to subvert and disrupt the elections.”
Read the full article from MIT Technology Review.
More from CNAS
-
Guidance for the 2025 AI Action Summit in Paris
Commentary
In September 2024, the French government, in collaboration with civil society partners, invited technical and policy experts to share their opinions on emerging technology iss...
By Janet Egan, Michael Depp, Noah Greene & Caleb Withers
-
Sharper: Trump 2.0
Commentary
Donald Trump's return to the White House is widely expected to reshape America's global priorities. With personnel choices and policy agendas that mark a significant break fro...
By Charles Horn & Gwendolyn Nowaczyk
-
Team America
Podcast
Kate Kuzminski, Deputy Director of Studies, and the Director of the Military, Veterans, and Society (MVS) Program at CNAS, joins to discuss President-elect Donald Trump nomina...
By Katherine L. Kuzminski
-
Response to Request For Comment: “Bolstering Data Center Growth, Resilience, and Security”
Commentary
CNAS experts emphasize the importance of data centers for artificial intelligence...
By Janet Egan, Geoffrey Gertz, Caleb Withers & Grace Park
